Patrick Mutwiri Karitu, Joram Ngugi Kamau
In this study, we investigate the repercussions of reopening the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) Auction on Kenya›s coffee sector. Despite a recent 1.9% decline in coffee prices since November 2022, our analysis, conducted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, reveals a promising transformation within the industry. Our findings indicate a surge in traded coffee volumes, signaling a revitalized market. Between February and August 2023, a 10% growth in export volumes, from 8,000 tons to 8,800 metric tons was witnessed. This upswing reflects renewed market interest and vibrancy. Furthermore, ARIMA analysis reaffirms a substantial rise in active buyers participating in the auction, from 10 to 15 buyers during the same period. This expansion underscores enhanced market activity and opportunities, emphasizing the growing appeal of Kenya›s coffee market after the NCE auction›s reopening. Despite ongoing price challenges, our study highlights the transformative potential of the NCE auction›s revival for Kenya›s coffee sector. The surge in trading volumes and increased buyer participation, supported by rigorous ARIMA modeling, underscores the critical role of transparent and efficient market mechanisms in revitalizing the sustainability and economic viability of the
industry. As the sector navigates price fluctuations, our research offers valuable insights into evolving market dynamics and strategies to enhance resilience within Kenya›s coffee sector.