Archives of Humanities & Social Sciences Research

Priming the Pump? Gas Prices and Governmental Approval in the U.S. and Canada

Abstract

Ross Burkhart

Among many economic pocketbook issues identified as being potentially influential on vote choice, gas prices have risen to a prominent place. Commentators regularly include them in a basket of consumer goods that the public pays close attention to, especially elevated prices. As a simple reward and punishment mechanism, gas prices may well play a critical role in incumbent party approval. I explore this research question using unique datasets of multi-year daily gas prices in the U.S. and Canada, as well as daily and monthly governmental approval ratings in both countries and U.S. survey questions. The analyses of these data indicate that daily gas prices modestly correlate with daily presidential approval, and that there is a partisan pattern to the interpretation of the importance of gas prices, with a negative impact on incumbent parties.

PDF